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Global markets were trading in a mixed pattern as signals from US technology earnings and unresolved questions about financing artificial intelligence investments kept investors cautious. Attention in Türkiye turned to the interest rate decision by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT).

Meta reported strong third-quarter results while Tesla missed profit expectations, and oil prices rose on Middle East tensions. The CBRT is expected to cut its policy rate, according to economists surveyed by AA Finans.

US tech earnings send mixed signals

The US earnings season gathered pace as Meta reported strong results yesterday, while electric car maker Tesla fell short of profit expectations. Meta's net profit rose 264 percent in the third quarter of this year to $9.9 billion, whereas Tesla's net profit fell 43 percent in the same period to $787 million.

Questions about the profitability of large US technology companies remain unresolved as the earnings calendar accelerates, and concerns persist over how the huge investments in artificial intelligence will be funded. Both factors are making it harder for asset prices to find direction.

Money markets price an 86 percent chance that the US Federal Reserve will keep its policy rate unchanged at next week's meeting, while a 25 basis point increase at the December meeting is seen as almost certain. Higher oil prices and the resulting inflation worries worldwide continue to support expectations that central banks may speed up policy tightening.

Middle East tensions push oil higher

US President Donald Trump said the reason for entering a war with Iran was to stop Tehran from having a nuclear weapon, calling it "one of the best things" he has done. The New York Times reported that unnamed US officials and other sources familiar with the talks claimed US and Israeli militaries were preparing "concrete plans" for new attacks on Iran after the US midterm elections.

Washington is preparing to evacuate diplomats from Saudi Arabia following continuing attacks on the country. US State Department spokesperson Tommy Pigott denied reports that an outbound order was being prepared for some staff and family members serving in Gulf countries, saying it applied only to US government personnel and family members in Saudi Arabia.

Oil prices rose on fears that regional tensions could intensify, with Brent crude for December delivery gaining 1.8 percent to $110.7 a barrel. Bond markets were choppy: the US 10-year yield, which moved flat yesterday, stood at 5.09 percent, down 3 basis points today, while the dollar index was at 101.5, off 0.1 percent.

Gold extended its decline as expectations build that geopolitical tensions could add to inflationary pressure through energy prices and push central banks toward a tighter stance. Gold was trading at $4,090 an ounce, down 1.2 percent. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 rose 0.58 percent, the Nasdaq 1.05 percent and the Dow Jones 0.69 percent, while US index futures started the day in negative territory.

European shares rebound on earnings

European stock markets, which had traded negatively since the start of the week amid growing unrest in France, recovered yesterday on upbeat earnings signals. SAP, one of Europe's largest technology companies, beat expectations with its third-quarter results, as quarterly revenue exceeded 10 billion euros. The company forecast 2026 revenue of between 36.3 billion and 36.8 billion euros.

Risk premiums on French bonds continued to climb as unrest in France persisted. France's 10-year yield rose above 5 percent to its highest level in 24 years, and the gap between French and German 10-year yields approached 160 basis points.

Data released in the region yesterday showed UK annual inflation reached 3.5 percent in September, its highest level since October 2025, driven by rising fuel prices. The country's total public debt was estimated to have exceeded 3 trillion pounds for the first time at the end of September.

Against this backdrop, the UK's FTSE 100 gained 0.19 percent, Italy's FTSE MIB 30 rose 1.17 percent, Germany's DAX 40 climbed 1.35 percent and France's CAC 40 added 1.06 percent. European index futures opened the new day lower.

Asian markets fall on AI and energy worries

Strong earnings from SpaceX and Meta in the US were not enough to lift Asian markets today. Asian bourses, which price semiconductor sector developments more closely, are struggling with questions over how artificial intelligence investments will be financed.

Rising oil prices driven by Middle East tensions are adding to energy costs and inflation worries, a negative factor particularly for Asian economies that depend heavily on energy imports. High inflation and the possibility that interest rates stay elevated for a long time are also weighing on valuations of growth-focused technology stocks.

Near the close, Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 2.1 percent, China's Shanghai composite dropped 1.3 percent, Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 2.9 percent and South Korea's Kospi lost 3.7 percent.

CBRT rate decision in focus at home

The BIST 100 index on Borsa İstanbul ended yesterday down 1.87 percent at 11,577.12 points in a session dominated by selling. In the Futures and Options Market (VIOP), the October contract based on the BIST 30 index rose 0.29 percent in the evening session compared with the normal session close.

Focus has shifted to the monetary policy decision from the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye. Economists participating in the AA Finans expectation survey expect the CBRT to cut its policy rate by 100 basis points at this meeting, to 36 percent.

The lira closed yesterday at 49.5600 against the dollar and was trading at 49.6240 in interbank trading at today's open, 0.1 percent above the previous close. Analysts said the CBRT rate decision and weekly money and banking statistics are on the domestic agenda today, while the euro area consumer confidence index, US weekly jobless claims and US consumer confidence data are due abroad.

Analysts put support for the BIST 100 at 11,400 and 11,300 points and resistance at 11,700 and 11,800 points. Today's calendar includes Türkiye's October consumer confidence index at 10:00, the CBRT rate decision at 14:00 and weekly money and banking statistics at 14:30, followed by US jobless claims figures and the October consumer confidence index at 15:30, the September leading indicators index at 17:00 and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity index for October at 18:00.

Key takeaways

• Meta's third-quarter net profit jumped 264 percent to $9.9 billion, while Tesla's fell 43 percent to $787 million.
• Brent crude for December delivery rose 1.8 percent to $110.7 a barrel amid Middle East tensions and a planned US diplomatic evacuation from Saudi Arabia.
• Economists surveyed by AA Finans expect the CBRT to cut its policy rate by 100 basis points to 36 percent today.
• The BIST 100 fell 1.87 percent yesterday to 11,577.12 points; Asian shares slid while European bourses closed higher.