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S&P Global Ratings said a stronger-than-expected disinflation path in Turkey, continued accumulation of international reserves and sustained confidence in the lira would be compatible with a higher credit rating.

The agency kept its BB-/B rating and stable outlook in place after skipping a scheduled review, and its lead Turkey analyst Karen Vartapetov said the baseline scenario remains valid even as external conditions stay difficult.

Growth of 3% expected this year

S&P Global Ratings forecasts inflation in Turkey at an average of 30.9% this year and 21.7% in 2027.

Economic growth is seen at 3% this year, compared with 3.7% last year. The forecast for this year is 0.4 percentage points below the agency's previous estimates because of the war in the Middle East. Growth is expected to pick up again in 2027, reaching 3.7%.

Key takeaways

• S&P Global Ratings kept Turkey's rating at "BB-/B" with a stable outlook after skipping a scheduled review on Friday, October 16.
• Lead analyst Karen Vartapetov said stronger disinflation, reserve accumulation and continued lira confidence would support a higher rating.
• The agency expects inflation to average 30.9% this year and sees growth at 3%, with the policy rate at least 35% at year-end.
• Fund liquidations have had limited macroeconomic impact so far, with money moving into lira bank deposits.