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Final opinion polls published by Israel's Channel 13 and Channel 12, released under the election blackout rules set by the Central Elections Committee, show that neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc nor the opposition bloc can reach the majority needed to form a government after the October 27 general election.

In both surveys, the Yashar party led by Gadi Eisenkot finishes first, followed by Netanyahu's Likud, while Arab parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel hold enough seats to play a decisive role in coalition talks.

Channel 13 survey

The Channel 13 poll put the opposition bloc at 54 seats and the Netanyahu-led bloc at 50, leaving both short of the 61 members required in the 120-seat Knesset. Arab parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel reached 16 seats, positioning them as potential kingmakers in coalition bargaining.

Within the opposition camp, Eisenkot's Yashar won 22 seats, Naftali Bennett's Beyahad 14, Yair Golan's The Democrats 10 and Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beiteinu 8. On the government side, Netanyahu's Likud took 19 seats, while Itamar Ben-Gvir's Jewish Power, Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism and the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism each won 8 and the ultra-Orthodox Shas party won 7.

Among the Arab parties, the Joint List reached 9 seats and Raam 7, sending a combined 16 lawmakers to parliament. The Israeli People's Party of Ofer Winter, the Reservists Party of Yoaz Hendel and the Haredi Community Party of Mati Leitner all failed to cross the 3.25 percent electoral threshold. The survey of 1,875 respondents carried a margin of error of 2.3 percent.

Channel 12 survey

The Channel 12 poll showed the opposition bloc at 56 seats and the Netanyahu-led bloc at 50. Yashar took 23 seats, Likud 21, Beyahad 15 and The Democrats 10, while Yisrael Beiteinu, Jewish Power and Shas each won 8.

United Torah Judaism received 7 seats and Religious Zionism 6. The two Arab lists representing Palestinian citizens of Israel were projected to reach a combined 14 seats. As in the Channel 13 survey, the parties of Winter, Hendel and Leitner did not win enough support to send lawmakers to the Knesset. This poll surveyed 1,018 people and had a margin of error of 4.4 percent.

Coalition arithmetic

Under Israel's electoral system, a government needs the backing of at least 61 of the 120 lawmakers in the Knesset. Neither bloc reached that number in either of the latest surveys.

The polls point to complex coalition arithmetic and tight negotiations once the election results are known, with the Arab parties that represent Palestinian citizens of Israel holding a potentially decisive position.

Key takeaways

• Both Channel 13 and Channel 12 polls show neither bloc reaching the 61 seats needed to govern.
• Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar leads the field, with Netanyahu's Likud in second place.
• Arab parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel hold 16 seats in one poll and 14 in the other.
• Three smaller parties fall below the 3.25 percent electoral threshold in both surveys.