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Polls published ahead of tomorrow's elections in Israel indicate that neither Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's coalition of far-right and ultra-Orthodox Haredi parties nor the opposition camp led by former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot can reach the 61 seats needed to form a government in the 120-seat Knesset.

With the race framed as a choice between Netanyahu and his rivals, and cross-bloc movement seen as difficult, three scenarios stand out if coalition talks fail: another election, a government led by Eisenkot, or a broad national unity government.

Polls show both blocs short of a majority

The final surveys released over the weekend before the vote put the opposition bloc at 54 to 56 seats, while the bloc led by Netanyahu is at 50. Two lists representing Palestinian citizens of Israel are forecast to win a combined 14 to 16 seats, forming a third bloc.

If those projections hold, both sides would face tough coalition bargaining as they try to draw parties from the rival camp into their fold. Because of the polarization in Israel, the election is widely described as a contest of "Netanyahu or his opponents," and movement between the blocs is considered unlikely. If the talks end in failure, three scenarios come to the fore.

The possibility of another election

If neither bloc wins the majority needed for a coalition and both follow the course they promised during the campaign, a fresh vote is seen as the most likely outcome. Israel went through a similar political deadlock between 2019 and 2022, holding five elections in four years, and commentators assess that a comparable picture could emerge again.

After the vote, President Isaac Herzog will hold consultation meetings with the leaders of the political parties, listen to candidates for the premiership and will most likely grant the mandate to form a government to the leader of the first-placed party. That leader would have six weeks, including any extension, to build a government. If that fails, a second leader gets four weeks, and if that attempt also fails, a coalition would then be expected to be formed within three weeks with the signatures of 61 lawmakers. Should a government still not be formed, the Knesset would be dissolved and new elections held within three months.

In that scenario, Netanyahu, who has been criticized for refusing to leave office because of corruption cases, would stay on as prime minister de facto and would take the country back to the polls in the first half of 2027. He is expected to remain in the post for another five or six months, and commentators have drawn attention to assessments that he would prepare for the renewed vote with tougher policies and further raise tensions in the region.

The possibility of an Eisenkot government

Netanyahu placed the claim that "the opposition bloc will form a coalition with Arab parties" at the center of his campaign, and the Likud party used the slogan "either the right or Palestine" throughout the campaign period.

Eisenkot responded by taking a defensive position, saying that the opposition would not act together with Arab parties and that no Palestinian state would be established during its time in government. Some right-wing politicians in the opposition bloc, led by former Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman, likewise said plainly that they would not sit at the same table as Palestinians.

Mansur Abbas, the leader of Raam, one of the parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel, announced readiness to join a coalition as it did in 2021, but polls indicate Raam's support may not be enough. The Joint List, made up of Hadash, Taal and Balad, left the door open by saying it could provide outside support "to bring down the far-right government."

If Eisenkot and its allies maintain their pre-election stance, this scenario would be hard to realize, although the parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel would continue to hold a decisive position in the Knesset.

A national unity government

The idea of a broad-based "national unity government" including parties from both the ruling and opposition camps, raised by Netanyahu in July 2026, has become the scenario discussed most in recent days.

Israeli media reported that President Herzog believes Netanyahu and Eisenkot should lead such a government in order to avoid a repeat of the situation in 2019 and 2020, when three elections were held in 11 months. Israel's far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has also claimed that Netanyahu is seeking a national unity government, saying repeatedly that Netanyahu avoids being seen with him and is trying to sideline him.

Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot have argued on the eve of the election that they are not aiming for such a broad-based government, but the possibility is not ruled out. Israeli media assess that a potential government led by the two would not include Ben-Gvir, who is said to have become a burden on Israel as well and has drawn international criticism over leading human rights violations against Palestinians, while the position of another far-right minister, Smotrich, remains unclear.

It has been suggested that Eisenkot may seek guarantees from Netanyahu, who previously triggered a political crisis by refusing to hand over the seat to his partner during rotation arrangements, and may demand a state inquiry into the October 7 events and a freeze on judicial arrangements. Possible new attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran are described as a factor that could push the opposition side to the table for such a coalition government and strengthen the prospect of a national unity government.

What awaits Palestinians

The rhetoric of politicians on both the ruling and opposition sides ahead of tomorrow's elections points to no significant change on the issue of Palestinians.

Even if Netanyahu's government is toppled and the opposition forms a coalition, talk of a possible slight easing of pressure on Palestinians is tempered by assessments that the pressure would continue with different tone and tools. If another far-right government is formed, attacks and repression are projected to increase further.

Key takeaways

• Polls put the opposition bloc at 54 to 56 seats and Netanyahu's bloc at 50, leaving both short of the 61 needed to govern.
• Lists representing Palestinian citizens of Israel are forecast to win 14 to 16 seats and hold a decisive position in the Knesset.
• A repeat election is seen as the most likely outcome, with Netanyahu expected to remain prime minister de facto for another five or six months.
• Israeli media assess a national unity government led by Netanyahu and Eisenkot is under discussion, without far-right minister Ben-Gvir.