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The International Monetary Fund published its October World Economic Outlook, forecasting global growth of 3.1% this year and 3.4% next year. The fund had projected 3.0% growth for 2026 and 3.4% for 2027 in July, and 3.1% and 3.2% in April.

The report said the global economy had shown renewed resilience, though unevenly across countries, and that room for adjustment was narrowing quickly. Activity in the first half of 2026 beat expectations despite pressure from the prolonged Middle East war and trade tensions, supported by a technology cycle driven by strong investment in artificial intelligence.

Headline inflation is expected to rise to 4.7% in 2026 on temporary energy and food price increases, then ease to 4.1% in 2027. Risks are skewed downward, with a prolonged Middle East standoff potentially keeping energy and food prices volatile, reviving inflation and weighing on growth. Among major economies, the US forecast was kept at 2.3% this year, the euro area was revised up to 1.1%, Germany to 1.3% and India to 7%, while China was lowered to 4.5%. Turkey is projected to grow 2.7% in 2026 and 3.6% in 2027, with year-end inflation seen at 31.2% and 26.5% respectively.

Key Takeaways

• IMF projects global growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, raising this year's outlook from 3%.
• Global inflation is forecast at 4.7% in 2026 before easing to 4.1% in 2027, while risks lean to the downside.
• Turkey is expected to grow 2.7% in 2026 and 3.6% in 2027, with year-end inflation at 31.2% and 26.5%.