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Danny Citrinowicz, a former head of the Iran desk at the research division of Israel's Military Intelligence Directorate, has described as "complete madness" an alleged plan by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government to strike Iran's energy infrastructure and launch a new war with days to go before the October 27 general election, warning that such a move would lead to a regional disaster.

Speaking to the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, Citrinowicz, now a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), said there is currently no military or strategic justification for a new war against Tehran and that such a step before or after the vote would stem from political calculations rather than operational necessity.

Claims of a near diplomatic breakthrough disputed

On the political calendar in Washington, Citrinowicz said that ahead of the US midterm elections in November, the Iranians want Trump to lose in order to send the message that dealing with them will cost the vote. Tehran is ready to return to the table but puts forward conditions Trump cannot accept, Citrinowicz said, adding that reports of a "diplomatic breakthrough" in the London-based Qatari outlet Al Araby al-Jadeed do not reflect reality.

Citrinowicz recalled that Mohsen Rezai, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, declared in a meeting with Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir that all enriched nuclear material will remain inside the country as a national asset and that there will be no negotiations unless the United States takes confidence-building steps.

The two-month transition in the United States between the November midterms and the seating of the new Congress in January is very risky, Citrinowicz argued, suggesting that Trump might want to land a single blow and declare victory without returning to an aim of toppling the Iranian government.

Citrinowicz said the most alarming aspect is that it has become impossible to separate Netanyahu's personal and political calculations from Israel's strategic interests. "Is a military solution the only option, and will it serve Israel's interests? Israel should not rush into a new war, one with the potential to be far more dangerous and extremely violent, before analyzing why it failed to reach the goals it declared in previous operations," Citrinowicz said. "Strategic coordination with the United States is the foundation of our policy, but Israel must judge independently what is right for it, because the Iranians draw lessons from every encounter."

Key takeaways

• Former Military Intelligence official Danny Citrinowicz calls a planned strike on Iran before the October 27 election "complete madness" and warns of a regional disaster.
• Citrinowicz says Iran has not restarted enrichment and its missile arsenal has not recovered, leaving no military or strategic justification for war.
• Israel has yet to repair damage on its northern and southern borders, and both Israel and the United States face a shortage of interceptor missiles.
• Citrinowicz disputes reports of an imminent diplomatic breakthrough and says Israel must assess independently of US coordination.