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European natural gas benchmark prices rose to 88.1 euros per megawatt hour today, the highest level since December 2022, as shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and supply concerns ahead of the heating season pushed the market higher.

The November futures contract on the Dutch TTF hub gained 8.2 percent from Friday's close of 81.43 euros, after a week in which prices held near 86 to 87 euros on worries over liquefied natural gas supply security.

Benchmark contract climbs past 88 euros

Natural gas for November delivery on the Netherlands-based TTF, the European pricing benchmark, closed last Friday at 81.43 euros per megawatt hour. Prices stood at 88.1 euros at 15.13 today, up 8.2 percent from that close, reaching the highest European gas price since December 2022.

Rising tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and escalating regional tensions had already lifted concerns over the security of liquefied natural gas supplies. Prices reached 86 euros per megawatt hour on Monday and climbed as high as 87.22 euros on Tuesday, holding around those levels through the week.

Storage levels below the five-year average

Gas Infrastructure Europe data show that gas storage facilities in European Union countries are 74.1 percent full, compared with 83.04 percent at the same time last year.

Warren Patterson, head of commodity strategy at ING, said Europe is entering the heating season with low stock levels and that LNG flows from the Persian Gulf remain about 80 percent below the same period last year, according to international media reports.

Patterson noted that oil shipments have partly recovered while LNG flows have not seen a comparable improvement, and said Persian Gulf LNG supply could reach global markets only in limited volumes for a significant part of the northern hemisphere winter. Patterson also said below-average European storage is supporting prices, and that the German government asked the state-controlled company SEFE to buy and store an additional 8 terawatt hours of gas by December 15.

Asia and Europe compete for LNG cargoes

Shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are making it harder for Europe to replenish its gas stocks, while the decline in Middle Eastern LNG supply is deepening the tightness in the global market.

Patterson said Asia and Europe will keep competing for available LNG cargoes through the winter and that Europe may remain exposed to price spikes from further supply disruptions and cold weather because of the low storage levels.

ING expects the European TTF benchmark to average 73 euros per megawatt hour in the 2026-2027 winter season, revising its earlier forecast of 65 euros upward. The bank's assessment points to a clear fall in prices from the second quarter of 2027 as Persian Gulf supply normalizes and US LNG export capacity grows.

Key takeaways

• TTF November futures rose 8.2 percent to 88.1 euros per megawatt hour, the highest since December 2022.
• EU gas storage stands at 74.1 percent, down from 83.04 percent at the same time last year.
• ING says Persian Gulf LNG flows are about 80 percent below last year's levels.
• ING raised its 2026-2027 winter TTF forecast to 73 euros per megawatt hour from 65 euros.