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The Ethiopian army and the state-backed Tigray Peace Force are extending their control across the northern Tigray region toward the Eritrean border, while anti-government forces claim counterattacks in several areas. The government says the latest fighting ended in the defeat of the rebel Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), a claim the group has not addressed.

Ethiopia also announced the creation of an interim administration for Tigray that will operate for six months under federal oversight, tasked with restoring public services, enabling the return of displaced people and preparing conditions for elections.

Interim administration for Tigray

The Ethiopian government said the interim council will serve for six months under federal supervision. Its stated goals are to re-establish public services, secure the return of people displaced by the fighting and create the conditions needed to hold elections during that period.

The government described the recent clashes as a defeat for the rebel TPLF. The organization has issued no statement so far.

Advance toward the Eritrean border

According to the latest update from Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), the conflict monitoring group, the Ethiopian army has taken control of the town of Rama, about seven kilometers from the Mereb River on the Eritrean border. ACLED also recorded federal forces and the Tigray Peace Force entering the city of Aksum, while Tigray Defense Forces aligned with the TPLF remain in the mountainous rural areas of the Adet and Chila districts near the city.

ACLED said federal forces and their allies secured the town of Shire and the towns of Atsibi, Freweyni and Idaga Hamus on Oct. 9, Adigrat on Oct. 10 and Adwa on Oct. 11. After Fatsi and the border town of Zalambessa changed hands on Oct. 12, Tigray forces withdrew toward the Debre Damo area and in the direction of the Irob district.

A shipment of tanks and heavy weapons from Adigrat toward Fatsi and Zalambessa began on the night of Oct. 12 and continued on Oct. 13. The U.S.-based Critical Threats Project (CTP) reported that federal forces advanced north from Adigrat and reached Zalambessa. ACLED said Eritrean soldiers who had entered Tigray withdrew to their own country on Oct. 12 through Zalambessa, and that Eritrean and Tigray forces also pulled back from the Sheraro area, leaving the town under nobody's control.

Tigray Peace Force spokesperson Solomon Hailemariam claimed on Oct. 15 that Eritrean forces had suffered heavy losses. Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel denied the claim, and the scale of any casualties could not be independently verified.

Counterattacks in Tigray, Amhara and Afar

The TPLF-aligned Tigray Defense Forces announced a counteroffensive in the Tembien area of central Tigray. Citing local media reports, the group claimed it had retaken Abiy Addi, Shewate Higum and Yechila on Oct. 14.

The anti-government armed group Amhara Fano National Movement claimed it captured 10 settlements in North Shewa in the Amhara region, including the towns of Mehal Meda and Zemero. Residents reported civilian casualties in the fighting. Claims by the Tigray rebels and Fano of taking control of various locations could not be independently confirmed.

In the northeastern Afar region, the Ethiopian army was reported to have regained control on Oct. 1 of the towns of Abala and Erebti, which the Tigray rebels and the Afar armed group Ugugumo had captured in September. Ugugumo's latest statement said coordination through the anti-government alliance would continue, without reporting the capture of any new settlement.

Alliance members give conflicting accounts

It is not confirmed that all members of the seven-group alliance, announced in September as formed to overthrow Abiy Ahmed's government, have joined the common operations. Current information on the Oromo Liberation Army's direct contribution to the recent northern operations remains limited.

CTP reported that a spokesperson for the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) said the group supported the alliance's political goals but did not take part in its military objectives. Citing reporting by Deutsche Welle's Amharic service, the organization said spokespeople for the Benishangul People's Liberation Movement and the Gumuz People's Democratic Movement denied membership in the alliance.

Fighting resumes after the Pretoria agreement

Clashes between the Ethiopian government and the TPLF from 2020 to 2022 were halted by the Pretoria Agreement. Fighting resumed in September and continues, with Ethiopia accusing Eritrea of sending troops onto its territory and backing armed groups. Eritrea argues that its sovereignty is being threatened.

Key takeaways

• ACLED reports the army took Rama, near the Eritrean border, and entered Aksum alongside the Tigray Peace Force.
• Federal forces secured Shire, Adigrat and Adwa in successive days before Tigray forces withdrew toward Debre Damo and Irob.
• Tigray forces claim to have retaken three towns in Tembien, while Fano claims 10 settlements in North Shewa; none of the claims are independently verified.
• Members of the seven-group anti-government alliance have given conflicting statements about their participation in joint military operations.