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A rise in drone attacks on commercial ships off the coasts of Bulgaria and Romania has put cooperation with Turkey, another Black Sea state, at the center of efforts to secure the region.

Policy analysts say the three NATO allies should build on arrangements they are already developing, and that navigation through their territorial waters must be protected as energy projects in the Black Sea move forward.

Navigation through territorial waters

Dimitar Bechev, a senior fellow at the Europe Center of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria should seek additional support from NATO and could also approach the United States.

Bechev assessed that Russia wants support for Ukraine in Europe to be cut off rather than seeking to test NATO, and said a revival of the Black Sea Grain Initiative in its previous form remains a remote possibility for now. "Russia did not renew the initiative in 2023. NATO members then created an alternative route based on transit through territorial waters. Now an improved version of that alternative is needed. Continued navigation through the territorial waters of Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey must be secured. That is the minimum condition to be met, but for this we need a more effective counter-drone defense capacity," Bechev said.

Key takeaways

• Drone attacks on commercial ships off the coasts of Bulgaria and Romania have intensified calls for cooperation with Turkey.
• Turkey controls Black Sea access under the Montreux Straits Convention and led talks on the MCM Black Sea task group, Branea said.
• NATO and the EU should recognize and strengthen the arrangements being developed by Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria, rather than create a new body.
• Navigation through the three countries' territorial waters must be secured and counter-drone defenses improved, according to Bechev.