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The World Bank expects global commodity prices to rise 23.1% in 2026 as conflicts in the Middle East, disruptions to grain shipments and the El Nino weather event tighten supply and pressure food access, the lender said in the October edition of its Commodity Markets Outlook report.

Energy prices are forecast to climb 32% in 2026 after three years of declines, with Brent crude averaging $91 a barrel, while food, fertilizer, metals and precious metals are also projected to increase.

Key takeaways

• The World Bank expects overall commodity prices to rise 23.1% in 2026 and fall 7% in 2027.
• Energy prices are forecast to jump 32% in 2026, with Brent crude averaging $91 a barrel.
• Global oil supply is projected to fall 5.2% in 2026, the biggest drop in more than 40 years outside 2020.
• Fertilizer, metals and precious metals are also expected to post double-digit increases in 2026.