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The United Nations Security Council held its seventh straw poll on candidates to succeed Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, whose term ends at the close of this year. Fifteen council members registered their views on seven contenders in the closed, unofficial ballot.

The vote came a day after an informal dialogue session for Lana Nusseibeh, the latest entrant in the race from the United Arab Emirates. Council President Aglaia Balta said the results would be sent to the permanent representatives of the countries nominating candidates and to the President of the General Assembly.

Seventh round of consultations

The closed-door straw poll was held this time without color-coded ballots, unlike the previous round. Aglaia Balta, Greece's permanent representative to the UN and president of the Security Council, told reporters that an informal dialogue for Nusseibeh took place on 28 October, followed today by the seventh straw poll.

Balta said no decision has been made on when the next straw poll will take place. The Council, Balta added, will give the General Assembly enough time to prepare the secretary-general-elect before taking up the selection.

Results of the seventh vote

According to initial information leaked to reporters from diplomatic sources, Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica again finished first in the secret ballot, with 11 "encourage" votes and 4 "discourage" votes. Rafael Grossi followed with 9 encourage, 4 discourage and 2 abstentions, while Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett placed third with 8 encourage, 6 discourage and 1 abstention.

Nusseibeh, the last candidate to enter the race, finished fourth with 7 encourage, 6 discourage and 2 abstentions, a weaker showing than some had expected. Olara Otunnu received 4 encourage and 11 discourage votes, Maria Fernanda Espinosa 2 encourage, 10 discourage and 3 abstentions, and Ivonne Baki 1 encourage and 14 discourage votes.

How the straw poll works

In the closed, unofficial vote, council members mark one of three options for each candidate: encourage, discourage or abstain. The ballot serves as a test to measure support for those seeking the post of UN secretary-general.

The most recent poll had used color-coded ballots for the first time. Because a new candidate joined the contest, the vote returned to the colorless format this round. Under the color system, a "discourage" ballot from any of the five permanent members, which hold veto power over candidates, weakens a contender's chances.

Straw polls are informal, so discourage ballots cast in one round can be reversed in a later straw poll or in the formal vote.

The race and the timeline ahead

Seven candidates are competing to replace Guterres: International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi; Rebeca Grynspan, secretary-general of the UN Conference on Trade and Development, who has taken leave to run; Maria Fernanda Espinosa, president of the UN General Assembly in 2018-2019; Guyana's UN permanent representative Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett; Olara Otunnu, who served as Uganda's permanent representative to the UN in the 1980s; Ecuadorian politician and diplomat Ivonne Baki; and Lana Nusseibeh of the UAE. Former Senegal President Macky Sall withdrew from the race on 20 October.

In closed sessions of the 15-member Council, a candidate needs at least 9 votes and must avoid a veto from the permanent members: the United States, Russia, China, Britain and France. Although the UN Charter does not explicitly bar the Council from recommending more than one name, long-standing practice expects the body to agree on a single candidate to forward to the General Assembly.

Reaching consensus on one name is expected to take some time, and the new secretary-general is anticipated to be settled by December at the latest. A candidate who wins majority approval in the 193-member General Assembly will begin a five-year term on 1 January 2027. Guterres, a Portuguese national who has held the post for two terms since 2016, leaves office on 31 December.

Key takeaways

• The Security Council held its seventh straw poll for the next UN secretary-general, with results sent to nominating states and the General Assembly president.
• Rebeca Grynspan led with 11 encourage and 4 discourage votes, ahead of Rafael Grossi and Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett.
• UAE candidate Lana Nusseibeh placed fourth in the first poll since joining the race, following an informal dialogue on 28 October.
• A candidate needs at least 9 votes and no veto from the five permanent members; the new secretary-general is expected to be decided by December and take office on 1 January 2027.