AI-generated illustration

The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (TCMB) has published the summary of its Monetary Policy Committee meeting held on October 22, saying energy prices remain high and volatile because of continuing geopolitical uncertainty.

The bank also warned that rising agricultural commodity prices add another upside risk to inflation and its expectations, while global growth is expected to stay weak and fragile.

Energy and food costs stay elevated

The summary said uncertainty over energy supply, supply chains and transport costs will continue to shape the future path of energy prices. "The high and volatile course of energy prices continues due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties," the document said.

Agricultural commodity prices are also holding at elevated levels because of adverse weather conditions and geopolitical developments, the summary said. It described this as a further upside risk factor for inflation developments and expectations.

Global growth outlook remains weak

Geopolitical developments are keeping the growth outlook for Middle Eastern and African countries negative for 2026, according to the summary. Growth rates are expected to recover in 2027 as base effects come into play.

Within this framework, the weak and fragile global picture is set to persist. The global growth index, weighted by the export shares of Türkiye's foreign trade partners, is forecast to expand by 1.6% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027.

Inflation risks and central bank policy

Upside risks to global inflation are continuing because of volatility in commodity prices, the summary said. Central banks are keeping those risks in view while also weighing the negative effects of developments on growth and employment.

Market pricing on policy rates points to continued expectations of rate increases in advanced economies. The summary noted that how long the supply shock caused by geopolitical events and unfavorable global weather conditions such as El Nino lasts, and how much it damages inflation expectations, matters for the course of global monetary policy.

Portfolio flows under pressure

The summary said fund outflows have recently been observed from emerging market stock markets due to rising uncertainty and swings in risk appetite, adding that downside risks to portfolio movements remain in place.

Key takeaways

• TCMB says energy prices remain high and volatile due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
• Agricultural commodity prices are elevated on bad weather and geopolitics, adding upside inflation risks.
• The global growth index weighted by Türkiye's trade partners' export shares is seen rising 1.6% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027.
• Fund outflows from emerging market equities continue amid rising uncertainty and volatile risk appetite.