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Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are expected to limit the growth of European air traffic and to cause a loss of roughly 110,000 flights this year, according to traffic forecasts published by EUROCONTROL for 2026-2032.

The agency now expects flights in the European Civil Aviation Conference (ECAC) area to rise 1.7% from last year to 11.2 million in 2026, one percentage point below the growth rate it projected in the spring.

Growth forecast trimmed despite strong summer demand

EUROCONTROL's forecasts, compiled by Anadolu Agency, show that the European aviation sector kept strong passenger demand through the summer but still fell short of earlier growth expectations because of geopolitical developments. The organization expects the number of flights in the ECAC region to grow 1.7% year on year in 2026 and reach 11.2 million.

Its spring forecast had projected 2.7% growth for the year. The annual flight growth expectation was therefore revised down by one percentage point, the equivalent of about 110,000 flights that the ongoing tensions in the Middle East are expected to remove from European traffic this year.

Recovery expected to gather pace in 2027

Under EUROCONTROL's base scenario, European air traffic growth is expected to regain speed in 2027. Flight numbers in the region are forecast to rise 3.2% next year and reach 11.6 million, although the revised 2026 figures mean next year's total is also set to come in below previous projections.

The forecasts assume the situation in the Middle East stabilizes by the end of the first quarter of 2027, after which air traffic recovers gradually and pressure on oil prices eases. In a more negative scenario, tensions in the region could persist until the end of the first quarter of 2028, with high fuel costs and weak economic growth limiting demand for air travel.

Turkey listed among markets with stronger recovery potential

EUROCONTROL expects the traffic rebound in 2027 to be most visible in markets that were more affected by developments in 2026. Turkey and some countries in the Eastern Mediterranean are named among the markets where the recovery in air traffic could be stronger.

Across Europe, flight numbers are projected to grow by an annual average of 2.1% between 2026 and 2032, with total flights in the region reaching about 12.8 million in 2032. The organization said the medium-term growth outlook is largely intact, while flight numbers may fall somewhat short of earlier expectations because of geopolitical developments.

September traffic rose but delays remained heavy

A network management report released by EUROCONTROL in October showed an average of 35,679 flights per day in European airspace in September, up 2.5% from the same period last year. The busiest day was September 4, with 37,548 flights recorded.

Total delay attributable to air traffic flow management in the month reached 2,415,643 minutes. Capacity constraints, adverse weather and problems in air traffic management were among the factors affecting operational performance despite the rise in traffic.

EUROCONTROL expects geopolitical developments, airspace restrictions, energy prices and demand for air travel to remain the factors shaping the course of air traffic in the period ahead.

Key takeaways

• EUROCONTROL expects about 110,000 fewer flights in Europe this year because of Middle East tensions
• Flights in the ECAC region are forecast to reach 11.2 million in 2026, up 1.7%, one point below the spring projection
• Traffic is expected to recover in 2027, with a 3.2% rise to 11.6 million flights under the base scenario
• Turkey and some Eastern Mediterranean countries are seen as markets with stronger recovery potential