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Fitch Ratings said risks linked to artificial intelligence investment, Middle East geopolitical tensions keeping energy prices elevated and tighter financing conditions are adding to the strain on the global risk environment as the new year approaches.

The credit rating agency reported that conditions have worsened since its previous Global Risk Outlook, with every core risk deteriorating in the third quarter of 2026.

AI investment risks

Rapid growth in AI-related investment remains one of the main credit risk concerns. A significant downward reassessment of long-term revenue expectations from artificial intelligence could trigger a sharp fall in capital expenditure, Fitch said, with consequences for companies across the AI value chain and for broader capital markets.

Key takeaways

• Fitch says the global credit risk environment has deteriorated since its last Global Risk Outlook, with all core risks worsening in the third quarter of 2026.
• The Fed raised rates in September, its first unanimous hike in three years, and Fitch now sees the policy rate at 4.25% throughout 2027.
• Fitch's base case has the US 10-year yield falling to 4.8% by the end of 2027, though oil supply disruptions and other factors could push yields higher.
• A sharp reassessment of AI revenue expectations could cut capital spending and hit AI value chain firms and wider capital markets.