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Israel’s Maariv newspaper, citing Drop Site News, reported that a classified CIA assessment warned of a risk of civil war or political collapse in Israel ahead of elections planned for October 27. According to the account, years of warfare in Gaza and Lebanon and with Iran have intensified the country’s political, economic and social divisions.

The reported assessment identified economic strain, rising military spending and severe psychological trauma among some soldiers returning from three years of conflict as sources of instability. It also highlighted tensions over compulsory military service, saying exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Haredi Jews had deepened disagreements between secular and religious communities. Escalating violence by Israeli settlers in the occupied West Bank was cited as another factor aggravating internal problems.

The account also described a separate crisis surrounding Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu amid Israel’s struggle for political power. It said growing international isolation and declining support in the United States could compound the risk of disintegration. Netanyahu has led the most right-wing government in Israel’s history since December 2022. Ahead of the planned general election, opinion polls reportedly put the opposition bloc in the lead, but without enough seats to form a government.

Key Takeaways

• Maariv, citing Drop Site News, reported a CIA warning of civil war or political collapse.
• The assessment linked instability to economic pressures, military costs and conscription disputes.
• International isolation and declining U.S. support were cited as additional risks.