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Global oil refining capacity is expected to increase by a net 4.2 million barrels per day between 2026 and 2030, according to BloombergNEF’s Global Oil Refinery Outlook. Following a decline last year, the projected expansion would be 162% larger than the net increase recorded over the preceding five-year period.

Expansions at existing refineries are expected to contribute about 2.9 million barrels per day, while newly built plants would add roughly 1.5 million. Refinery closures, concentrated mainly in Europe and North America, are forecast to remove around 200,000 barrels per day from global capacity.

Africa and Asia-Pacific are expected to account for approximately 95% of net capacity growth through 2030. Investment is being driven by demand expectations, policies to reduce import dependence, and projects targeting exports and petrochemical integration. China and India are forecast to provide 71% of new capacity scheduled to begin operating in 2026 and 2027.

BNEF said planned capacity growth substantially exceeds anticipated demand growth for refined products. If completed, the projects could increase competition and squeeze refining margins. About half of the additions planned for 2026-2030 are already operating or under construction. Projects scheduled for 2028-2030 face greater risks of delay or cancellation because a larger proportion remains at an early stage.

Key Takeaways

• Net global refining capacity is forecast to rise by 4.2 million barrels per day in 2026-2030.
• Africa and Asia-Pacific are expected to contribute about 95% of net growth.
• Capacity expansion could outpace demand growth, increasing pressure on refining margins.